Shot Quality vs. Shot Volume
Each dot represents an NCAA D1 Men’s basketball team. The x-axis is how often they shoot Rim + 3’s per game, and the y-axis is how well they shoot them, measured by eFG%. Dashed lines mark the D1 medians.
Conferences are listed in order of their Bart Torvik conference rankings.
365 D1 men’s teams, two axes. Horizontal is how often they shoot from the Rim + 3’s, the theoretically efficient shots. Vertically is how well they shoot them. Dot color represents team strength: Green is elite and Red is struggling. Take a moment to look over it, do you see any patterns?
These are the obvious winners. Blue-blood programs like Michigan, Duke and Florida sit in the top right. This is a simple and intuitive formula for success: they shoot a lot of the right shots and they make them.
If shooting a lot of Rim + 3’s is the answer, every team on the right half (above the median) should be performing well. Take a look, teams of all strength are scattered on the high volume side. Clearly shooting a lot of Rim + 3’s isn’t separating the good teams from the bad.
For example, Youngstown State, Elon and Cal Poly all shoot from the Rim + 3 as much as anybody (ranging from 81-84%). Defenses know exactly where the ball is going, and the result: mediocre conversion rates. These teams fell at NET #219, #222 and #227 respectively. It’s not that they’re taking the wrong shots, it’s that a predictable offense stops earning high quality looks.
Now the contrast. Purdue takes Rim attempts on just 24% of shots but converts at the 100th percentile. Houston gets to the rim on only 20% of their shots but converts on the mat the 99th percentile. Arizona creates rim opportunities on 40% of their shots, but is conservative from the 3-point line, only shooting when open. These teams ranked #8, #6 and #3 respectively in the NET rankings, despite not forcing up Rim + 3’s. None of them are chasing these shots, but rather taking what the defense presents them.
The best offenses aren’t necessarily the ones that are following the idea of shooting as much from the Rim + 3 as possible. They’re the ones that shoot when the defense hands them a real opportunity. Volume is a side effect of good offensive structure, but quality is what you have when you stop forcing it.
The proof, counted
We keep saying the best teams shoot better, not more. Here is that claim made literal: the 25 best teams in the country, ranked left to right by NET. Hover any square to see the team.
Ranked left to right, #1 to #25 by NET. Each square is one team. Every one shoots above-average quality. Ten shoot below-average volume and are elite anyway.
The one thing to take away
The formula is not wrong. Rim attempts and threes are the most efficient shots in basketball. However, the way teams use this formula is where you start seeing the difference in success. Some teams just use the formula as their entire game plan, while others tactically integrate it into theirs.
Youngstown State shoots from rim+3 zones on 84% of possessions. Arizona, ranked #3 in the country, does it on 67%. Youngstown is telling the defense every single possession what they plan to do. Arizona is creating opportunities and capitalizing on them. The shot types are identical. The approach is completely different. Purdue converts rim attempts at the 100th percentile nationally, not because they force their way there, but because they only go when the defense is out of position. Houston is the same story at the 99th percentile.
This is what the chart makes visible: the teams near the bottom are not there because they chose the wrong shots. They are there because they settle for three and rim attempts more often than not, which allows a defense to easily game-plan for this. The teams at the top earn each look individually, and when you do that, the volume takes care of itself.
Strictly abiding by taking shots that are analytically “high percentage” is not how basketball works. When analytics say there is an offensive advantage in a shot, it doesn’t mean the defense is blind to it; it just means the defense can prepare for it. So coaches should really be thinking about how they can incorporate the formula into their offense, and not use the formula as the offense.